Home / Ideas / Sector dual-momentum rotation (relative + absolute)
Sector dual-momentum rotation (relative + absolute)
rotate into the top few sector ETFs, step aside to bonds when trend is down
Combines cross-sectional (relative) momentum across sectors with a time-series (absolute) trend filter — Antonacci's dual-momentum logic. Directly exploits the 2026 "great rotation": leadership is broadening out of mega-cap AI into value, small-caps and lagging sectors, exactly the dispersion cross-sectional momentum needs.
Why it's relevant now
Mid-2026 commentary describes a "trader's market" of rising dispersion and widening leadership as Mag-7 concentration fades — a favorable backdrop for selective sector rotation over buy-and-hold.
Universe
10–11 US SPDR sector ETFs (XLK, XLF, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLY, XLP, XLU, XLB, XLRE, XLC) + defensive leg (IEF/TLT/BIL).
How it works
Rank sectors by 12-month (skip most recent month) return, hold top 3 equal-weight rebalanced monthly; if SPY 12-month return is negative, move that sleeve to bonds/cash.
Expected performance
Research-derived Sharpe estimate: 0.5–0.8. Quantpedia base 0.54; absolute filter trims drawdown).
Backtest this idea with SignalChain
This is a research lead — not a finished backtest. SignalChain takes an idea like this and runs the whole pipeline inside Claude Code: it researches the concept against academic and practitioner sources, sets benchmarks, writes and lints a VectorBT backtest, runs it, and grades the result PASS/FAIL. One command:
/signalchain Monthly sector-ETF rotation: hold top 3 SPDR sectors by 12-1 month momentum, switch to bonds when SPY 12-month return is negative
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Research & sources
- Quantpedia — Sector Momentum Rotational System — quantpedia.com
- Robot Wealth — Dual Momentum Review — robotwealth.com
- Forbes — The Stock Market Is In Mega Rotation — forbes.com
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Not financial advice. This page describes a research idea, not a recommendation. Any performance figures are hypothetical, research-derived estimates and are not indicative of future results. SignalChain is a research and educational tool; you are solely responsible for any decisions you make.